Legislature(2019 - 2020)CAPITOL 17

03/26/2019 10:15 AM House ENERGY

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10:16:10 AM Presentation: It's Not Our Fault - Alaska LNG & the Global Perspective
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ Presentation: It's Not Our Fault - Alaska LNG & TELECONFERENCED
the Global Perspective by Larry Persily
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
-- Teleconference Listen Only --
**Streamed live on AKL.tv**
                    ALASKA STATE LEGISLATURE                                                                                  
               HOUSE SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON ENERGY                                                                              
                         March 26, 2019                                                                                         
                           10:16 a.m.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Representative Grier Hopkins, Chair                                                                                             
Representative Zack Fields, Vice Chair                                                                                          
Representative John Lincoln                                                                                                     
Representative Ivy Spohnholz                                                                                                    
Representative Tiffany Zulkosky                                                                                                 
Representative Lance Pruitt                                                                                                     
Representative George Rauscher                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
All members present                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
COMMITTEE CALENDAR                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
PRESENTATION: IT'S NOT OUR FAULT - ALASKA LNG & THE GLOBAL                                                                      
PERSPECTIVE                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     - HEARD                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
PREVIOUS COMMITTEE ACTION                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
No previous action to record                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
WITNESS REGISTER                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
LARRY PERSILY                                                                                                                   
Juneau, Alaska                                                                                                                  
POSITION STATEMENT:  As former federal coordinator of Alaska                                                                  
North Slope Gas Pipeline projects, presented a PowerPoint,                                                                      
titled "It's not our fault there is no gas line."                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
ACTION NARRATIVE                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
10:16:10 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR GRIER HOPKINS called the  House Special Committee on Energy                                                             
meeting to order at 10:16  a.m.  Representatives Hopkins, Pruitt,                                                               
Lincoln, Rauscher,  Spohnholz, Fields, and Zulkosky  were present                                                               
at the call to order.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
^PRESENTATION:  IT'S NOT  OUR FAULT  -  ALASKA LNG  & THE  GLOBAL                                                             
PERSPECTIVE                                                                                                                   
   PRESENTATION: IT'S NOT OUR FAULT - ALASKA LNG & THE GLOBAL                                                               
                          PERSPECTIVE                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:16:30 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR HOPKINS announced that the  only order of business would be                                                               
a presentation  by Larry Persily, former  federal coordinator for                                                               
Alaska North Slope gas pipeline project.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:17:13 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
LARRY  PERSILY, as  former federal  coordinator  of Alaska  North                                                               
Slope  Gas Pipeline  projects, explained  that  his position  had                                                               
been  to  "encourage and  help  get  an  Alaska North  Slope  gas                                                               
pipeline built."  He noted that he  was one of the few people who                                                               
had closed  down a  federal agency and  shared a  story regarding                                                               
his contact with the General  Services Administration (GSA) after                                                               
notification that his agency would be  closed.  When he asked the                                                               
GSA what to do, the reply was:   "I don't know.  We've never done                                                               
that before.  We're  not sure what to do."   He stated that there                                                               
had  been work  done  to build  a North  Slope  gasline for  many                                                               
years, reporting  that since 2001  the State of Alaska  had spent                                                               
more  than $900  million on  various iterations  of the  project,                                                               
including the  Alaska Natural Gas  Development Authority  and the                                                               
Alaska Gasline Inducement Act.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
10:18:44 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE RAUSCHER asked for whom Mr. Persily was speaking.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY explained  that he  was speaking  for the  State and                                                               
Alaskans,  as a  whole, and  stated that  this included  multiple                                                               
agencies, governors, legislators,  and the people of  Alaska.  He                                                               
reported that there  had been a voter mandate to  approve a state                                                               
built  gasline and  noted  that  there had  been  more than  $300                                                               
million  spent on  a subsidy  for the  Alaska Gasline  Inducement                                                               
Act.   He  pointed to  the Alaska  Stand Alone  Pipeline and  the                                                               
Alaska Gasline  Development Corporation.   He  stated that,  as a                                                               
lot of  money had been  spent on these  projects, it was  not for                                                               
lack of  spending that there  was not  a gasline.   He emphasized                                                               
that it was  necessary to understand that  nothing was guaranteed                                                               
about  liquified natural  gas  (LNG) as  just  because you  built                                                               
something did  not guarantee it would  turn out as expected.   He                                                               
offered an example  of a 20-year contract between  Toshiba and an                                                               
LNG export  terminal in Texas.   He shared the history  of global                                                               
LNG  since   1964  with  cargo   from  Algeria,   reporting  that                                                               
everything had  been long-term and  stable, with no  spot markets                                                               
or short-term  trades, and it had  paid off over time.   Starting                                                               
20 years  ago, the  market really grew,  especially in  Qatar and                                                               
Australia,  and now  "everybody has  wanted to  get into  the LNG                                                               
trade and that's kinda where we are today."                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:22:09 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY  paraphrased  from  slide 2,  "No  matter  where  we                                                               
turned...," which read:                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
      Markets well supplied 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, while                                                                       
     higher value to North Slope gas pushing out more oil                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     North America looked possible in 2000s, until shale                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     Asia looked possible in 2010s, until every supplier in                                                                     
     the world saw the same LNG market opportunities                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  pointed out  that the  Alaska North  Slope producers                                                               
had  been using  the gas  to force  out more  oil, which  was the                                                               
highest and  best use of that  gas during that time,  and it made                                                               
Alaska and the companies a lot  of money.  He reported that shale                                                               
oil "ended any  hopes of getting Alaska gas  into North America."                                                               
He offered an example of  Pennsylvania gas, which would supply an                                                               
equivalent  of seven  Alaska  LNG projects.    In January,  North                                                               
Dakota flared  half a billion cubic  feet of gas daily,  twice as                                                               
much as  would be used  by Southcentral  Alaska, as they  did not                                                               
have the pipelines to send it anywhere.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:23:52 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY  moved on  to  slide  3,  "Alaska: The  $43  billion                                                               
question," and paraphrased the slide, which read:                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     Competition: Too many other less risky, lower-cost and                                                                     
     ready-to-go projects are lined up before Alaska                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     Demand: Growth is starting to slow down in China                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
      Missing pieces: Project lacks far too many essential                                                                      
     parts to reach investment decision for several years                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY reported that there was  a lot of stranded gas in the                                                               
world, and a lot of it was cheaper to get.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:24:59 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE PRUITT  pointed to the continued  building of coal                                                               
plants in  China which produced a  lot of pollution and  asked if                                                               
these newer plants  offered an opportunity to  transition in five                                                               
or ten years to "stem that tide" of pollution.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY replied  that a  China state  investment corporation                                                               
had recently announced that there  would not be financing for any                                                               
new  coal power  plants.   He expressed  agreement that  once the                                                               
existing  plants reached  the "end  of their  life, there's  more                                                               
opportunity, but what  else will China do between  now and then."                                                               
He reported that  China had a lot of shale  gas and although they                                                               
preferred to  buy locally, they had  not solved a way  to produce                                                               
it economically.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  PRUITT  reflected  that China  made  change,  not                                                               
because of  pressure from the rest  of the world, but  because of                                                               
internal  pressure.   He asked  if the  demand for  change within                                                               
China would be a driving force.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
10:28:01 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  expressed agreement  that pollution  drove decisions                                                               
although the  shift to gas  was not  supported by the  ability to                                                               
deliver  gas  to the  communities.    He  shared a  concern  that                                                               
economics  was  still part  of  the  decision-making process  and                                                               
that, as  coal was really cheap,  the price was an  issue for gas                                                               
to compete with coal.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  HOPKINS  asked  to explain  the  difference  between  spot                                                               
market and long-term market.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
10:29:29 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  stated that  most long-term  contracts for  LNG were                                                               
priced against  a barrel  of oil on  an energy  equivalent basis,                                                               
with about  6 million  BTUs per  barrel of oil.   He  pointed out                                                               
that, as  this was  a long-term contract,  the market  supply and                                                               
demand was not  an issue.  He explained that  the spot, or short-                                                               
term, market was based on what  was currently available.  He said                                                               
that  more customers  were now  going  to spot  market, but  that                                                               
could shift in the winter months.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
10:30:49 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY paraphrased slide 4, "The competition," which read:                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
     Qatar: World leader plans 43% expansion by 2024                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
       Australia: Now with 10 LNG plants, totaling 25% of                                                                       
     global capacity after $200 billion investment boom                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     Russia: Decision this year on second Arctic LNG plant                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     Mozambique: Total output could exceed Alaska LNG                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  reported that  Qatar was losing  its title  as world                                                               
leader   to  Australia,   although  Qatar   was  looking   toward                                                               
expansion.   He suggested  to look  at who  the partners  were in                                                               
these investments.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
10:31:50 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE FIELDS  asked about the structure  of the projects                                                               
in Qatar and Australia.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY  explained  that  the  projects  in  Australia  were                                                               
[indisc]  and that  in Qatar,  although the  projects were  state                                                               
owned, the  liquefaction projects were partnerships  with private                                                               
corporations.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE FIELDS  asked if these projects  were still making                                                               
money.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY replied  that the  cost of  production in  Qatar was                                                               
very low.  He said the largest  gas to liquids plant in the world                                                               
was in  Qatar, and that,  essentially, they were getting  the gas                                                               
for free.  He reported that,  in Australia, even though there was                                                               
no government  equity, there were  tax breaks or incentives.   He                                                               
said  that a  project was  allowed  to recover  its full  capital                                                               
expense before  paying tax.   He relayed  that Russia had  been a                                                               
bit player  but that  it had  just opened  its second  Arctic LNG                                                               
plant, and were looking at further expansion.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
10:34:55 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE SPOHNHOLZ  asked whether  Russia was  building gas                                                               
pipelines similar to the proposed Alaska gas pipeline.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  replied that  the plants were  located near  the gas                                                               
field in order to allow for a  short pipeline.  He noted that the                                                               
proposed Alaska  project was for  an 870-mile pipeline,  and that                                                               
"nobody comes close to that."                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
10:36:17 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  directed attention  to slide 5,  "And the  list goes                                                               
on," and paraphrased [indisc] from the slide, which read:                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
      Papua New Guinea: Decision anticipated this year on                                                                       
     $13 billion project to more than double capacity                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
        Shell-led LNG Canada project under construction;                                                                        
     partners from China, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     U.S. will have six LNG export terminals by late 2019                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR HOPKINS asked about resolution with First Nation tribes.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY replied  that there was not yet  resolution with all,                                                               
but  that there  were benefit  agreements signed  with "a  couple                                                               
dozen of  the First  Nations."   He shared  a dispute  within one                                                               
First  Nation  whereby  the elected  council  had  supported  the                                                               
pipeline  but  the hereditary  chiefs  had  not agreed  and  were                                                               
maintaining a protest camp along  the pipeline route.  He offered                                                               
his belief  that this would  be resolved, noting that  the length                                                               
of this  proposed pipeline was 416  miles.  He reported  that the                                                               
British Columbia government was  "scrapping a special LNG profits                                                               
tax that  the previous government  had put  in" and was  going to                                                               
exempt the project from sales  tax during construction, estimated                                                               
at  a  $600 million  savings,  as  well as  offering  performance                                                               
payments with no  interest to accrue, exempting  the project from                                                               
any future increase  in carbon tax, providing  electricity at the                                                               
lowest cost industrial  rate, and offering a 3  percent credit on                                                               
corporate income  tax for  any gas  bought for  the project.   He                                                               
stated that "this is a fact  of life in the competitive world out                                                               
there."                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:39:48 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  shared slide 6,  "More coming from Gulf  Coast," and                                                               
paraphrased the slide, which read:                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
      ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum have decided to build                                                                      
     $10 billion Golden Pass LNG project in Texas                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     Sempra Energy has its final EIS for Port Arthur, Texas                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Cheniere likely to expand Sabine Pass to serve China                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     Possible decisions late 2019 for two more LNG plants                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR HOPKINS asked about LNG passage through the Panama Canal.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY  replied  that  since  the  canal  expansion  almost                                                               
anything other  the largest  LNG carriers  were allowed  to pass.                                                               
He pointed  out that,  although there  was a  toll for  the canal                                                               
passage, cheap  gas then  liquified at a  low price  would "cover                                                               
the toll."   In response  to Chair  Hopkins, he agreed  that this                                                               
was based on U.S. prices.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:42:38 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  moved on  and paraphrased  slide 7,  "U.S. Gulf/East                                                               
Coast advantages," which read:                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
     Of the six export projects that will operating by the                                                                      
     end of 2019, five were unused LNG import terminals                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
      'Brownfield' developments with storage tanks, berths                                                                      
     are less costly than 'greenfield' LNG export terminals                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Gulf Coast access to world's most traded gas supply                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:43:15 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  discussed slide  8, "Construction  costs worldwide,"                                                               
which read:                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
       Average capital cost for new liquefaction capacity                                                                       
     2008-2017: $1,501/tonne for 'greenfield' projects and                                                                      
     $458/tonne for expansions, 'brownfield' projects                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     Middle East (Qatar): Under $400/tonne 2008-2017                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     Alaska: $2,150/tonne ($43 billion, 20 million tonnes)                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY pointed  out that discussion of capital  cost was per                                                               
tonne of  capacity, noting the  difference of almost  three times                                                               
the   cost  between   "brownfield"   projects  and   "greenfield"                                                               
projects.   He pointed out that  more than 800 miles  of pipe and                                                               
high construction cost  made the cost of LNG per  tonne in Alaska                                                               
"outside  of the  range of  others, that's  something we  need to                                                               
work on."                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE SPOHNHOLZ  asked about the causes  for the primary                                                               
cost overruns in Australia.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  offered his belief  that this  was a result  of poor                                                               
planning  and rushing  in by  the companies  as they  embarked on                                                               
construction of  six different projects  at the same time.   This                                                               
put tremendous  pressure on  wages, supplies,  and services.   He                                                               
added that  there was  not any cooperation  for sharing  pipes or                                                               
facilities, and that they had tried to do too much at one time.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE   SPOHNHOLZ  said   that   this  underscored   the                                                               
strategic value of slowing down  and being more deliberate with a                                                               
gasline.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY expressed his agreement  and noted that most projects                                                               
spent  years  in preliminary  design  and  planning to  know  the                                                               
actual costs.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
10:45:36 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY paraphrased  slide 9,  "Global demand  projections,"                                                               
which read:                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Annual demand to grow 125 million tonnes from 2020 to                                                                      
     2030; average of 12 independent forecasts                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
       Final investment decisions approved or anticipated                                                                       
      2018-2020 for 130 million tonnes of new capacity in                                                                       
     Qatar, Mozambique, PNG, Russia, Canada, U.S. Gulf                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     Strong demand growth would require even more LNG                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY spoke  about a presentation by the  biggest lender in                                                               
Africa,  Standard  Bank, on  the  Mozambique  LNG project,  which                                                               
combined a  dozen different independent  forecasts of  global LNG                                                               
demand and  reflected LNG  growth equal to  more than  six Alaska                                                               
LNG projects.   He stated  that no one  builds an LNG  project on                                                               
speculation, hoping that  the market will be there  as the market                                                               
can shift so quickly.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
10:47:22 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  FIELDS asked  about  the average  length of  time                                                               
from conception to final investment decision.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY, in  response,  said that  from  field discovery  to                                                               
production was often more than 25  years.  He declared that these                                                               
were big risks that took a lot of time.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE FIELDS asked how common  it was for a trade-off of                                                               
production of more oil versus  getting the gas to market, similar                                                               
to the situation in Alaska.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  replied that there was  not much trade off  if there                                                               
was only a gas field.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
10:49:40 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY shared slide 10, which read:                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
      China's gas demand is forecast to grow 11% in 2019,                                                                       
     down from 15% growth in 2017 as economy weakens                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     China pushing for increased domestic gas production                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     Power of Siberia gas line on track for December 2019;                                                                      
     could fill 15% of China's gas import demand by 2023                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY pointed  out that, although China had a  lot of shale                                                               
gas,  it  was  not  by  the  urban  industrial  centers,  so  the                                                               
economics of shale was still challenging in China.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
10:51:01 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY explained slide 11,  "Buyers watch the price of LNG,"                                                               
which read:                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Major Chinese importers lose money on LNG buys                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     India a big growth market, but most price sensitive                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     Low price builds demand, but limits new investment                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     Citizens support drive to clean up the air but cannot                                                                      
     afford too much more for cleaner gas over dirty coal                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  pointed out  that after  the nuclear  plant meltdown                                                               
and the  subsequent shut down of  more than 50 nuclear  plants in                                                               
Japan, the  price of  gas had  spiked more  than three  times the                                                               
price in  Alaska and  ten times the  price in the  Lower 48.   He                                                               
reported that PetroChina  lost about $1.50 for  every million BTU                                                               
in the last year because the  government had set the sales price,                                                               
while the  company had to pay  market price.  He  stated that new                                                               
LNG projects had to decide when  to come onto the market in order                                                               
to build demand.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE RAUSCHER  reflected on an early  estimate to build                                                               
the gasline  for about  $3 billion,  whereas today  the estimated                                                               
cost  was $40  billion.    He pointed  out  that  the price  kept                                                               
increasing and  asked whether it  was worth building  the gasline                                                               
just to  "get in  the game" and  not for timing  the market.   He                                                               
asked  if  that had  any  bearing  and  did  it "come  into  play                                                               
somewhere."                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY shared that the original estimate for the Trans-                                                                    
Alaska Pipeline System  (TAPS) was under $1  billion, whereas the                                                               
final  cost  had been  $8  billion.    He  mused that  the  early                                                               
estimate may  have thought  that the CO2  could have  been vented                                                               
into the  atmosphere, which was  no longer allowed, and  not have                                                               
to  pay that  cost.   He asked,  "how deep  is you  pocket."   He                                                               
allowed that  there were  some projects  worldwide with  no long-                                                               
term sales  contracts, as the  project manager thought  that they                                                               
could gamble  and sell the  contracts in  the future.   He stated                                                               
that it would  be companies similar to Exxon,  which could afford                                                               
to do this.   He declared that  this would be very  risky for the                                                               
State of Alaska.  He shared a story of gas in Equatorial Guinea.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
10:58:05 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE PRUITT  directed attention to slide  11, and asked                                                               
about  India, noting  that  although it  would  surpass China  in                                                               
population, it struggled  to develop.  He asked  about the future                                                               
gas market in India.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY added  that Egypt was also a growth  market but noted                                                               
that India  was more  price sensitive  as they  did not  have the                                                               
money.   He compared India and  China as the governments  set the                                                               
price for a domestic producer to  sell gas.  This could cover the                                                               
price of gas from an old gas field  but not from a new gas field.                                                               
If the price  was lifted, it could  increase domestic production,                                                               
but consumers could  balk at paying.  He pointed  out that Alaska                                                               
was well  positioned to sell gas  to China, but for  India it was                                                               
more economical to buy gas from Mozambique or the Middle East.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  HOPKINS  asked if  India  had  any  priority to  have  LNG                                                               
imported versus a pipeline for gas.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  stated that India  did not have enough  pipelines to                                                               
move the  gas around the  country.  He  said they were  buying it                                                               
from Qatar  and, as  their long-term  contracts were  newer, they                                                               
offered better prices.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  HOPKINS asked  whether it  would make  any difference  for                                                               
India to  have a  gas pipeline from  Siberia versus  bringing the                                                               
LNG import facilities on-line.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY  offered  his  belief  that  it  would  not  make  a                                                               
difference.   He estimated  that the cost  of developing  the gas                                                               
fields in Eastern  Siberia and a pipeline to China  was about $50                                                               
billion.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
11:02:16 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY, slide 12, "More Uncertainties"                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Japan restarting more nuclear plants; LNG imports flat                                                                     
     at best and likely to decrease in the years ahead                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     Egypt stops LNG imports; back in the export business                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
       Russia looks to build in the Arctic, Far East and                                                                        
     Baltic                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Will politics and trade fights weaken world economy?                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY reported that, as Japan  was not a growth market, LNG                                                               
demand had started to drop.  He  noted that Egypt had been an LNG                                                               
exporter  for  a decade  but  had  run into  domestic  production                                                               
problems and was  currently importing gas, although  they had re-                                                               
started production.   He added  that Russia was "becoming  a huge                                                               
player in the market."                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
11:03:33 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY spoke  about slide 13, "Global  LNG financing," which                                                               
read:                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     It's not unusual for two dozen banks to take slices of                                                                     
     long-term financing for a new LNG export project                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     Train 5 at Sabine Pass: 25 banks loaned $2.85 billion                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     Average bank loan on LNG projects: $256 million, $300                                                                      
     million, $381 million in 2014, 2015 and 2016                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY declared  that  it  was unusual  for  one lender  to                                                               
extend more than  $1 billion as it was too  risky.  He referenced                                                               
a bank  study which showed  that 15 LNG export  projects financed                                                               
between 2005 - 2016 had an  average debt load of 65 percent, with                                                               
owner equity of 35 percent.  He pointed out that lenders "like                                                                  
to see that you have some of your own cash in there."                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY discussed slide 14, "China's growing finance role,"                                                                 
which read:                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     China's $6  billion 2016 bank  financing for  Yamal LNG                                                                    
     in  the Russian  Arctic  was the  largest project  loan                                                                    
     ever                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     Plus $6 billion from Export-Import Bank of China                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     U.S. sanctions pushed Yamal to look toward China                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     In 2015, Chinese banks loaned just $750 million                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
11:06:05 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY paraphrased slide 15, "State overly focused on                                                                      
China," which read:                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     China playing the world market for the best deals                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
       hey come, they do their  due diligence, they kick the                                                                    
     tires."  Louisiana LNG developer on Chinese buyers                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     "I think China  will continue to grow, but  China has a                                                                    
     lot of choices in terms of energy."  JERA chairman                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY reported that the tremendous growth in China would                                                                  
not continue at that accelerated rate.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
11:07:06 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY discussed slide 16, "Alaska LNG risks are                                                                           
substantial," which read:                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     Producers  willing to  sell  gas at  inlet  to the  gas                                                                    
     plan,  but  what  about the  sales,  market  and  price                                                                    
     risks?                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Who takes those risks? And the construction risks?                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     And  what about  the risk  and price  for new  supplies                                                                    
     after  Prudhoe  Bay  and Point  Thomson  start  decline                                                                    
     before end of the long-term loan or supply contract                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY  pointed out  that  these  projects would  start  to                                                               
decline before  a 30-year contract  could be supplied.   He asked                                                               
who would take  that risk for looking for new  gas, what would be                                                               
the price of  the new gas, and  what if the price of  the new gas                                                               
cost  more than  the original  deal would  pay.   He offered  his                                                               
support  of  the approach  by  AGDC  (Alaska Gasline  Development                                                               
Corporation)  to  finish its  work  on  the environmental  impact                                                               
statement with  the Federal Energy Regulatory  Commission (FERC).                                                               
He pointed out that the oil companies  had also put a lot of work                                                               
into that  statement.  He  noted that the FERC  authorization was                                                               
generally  good  for five  years  and  could  be renewed  if  the                                                               
information was brought  up to date.  He added  that one test for                                                               
that authorization would  be a list of  conditions and mitigating                                                               
factors for  the project, as  these were the things  necessary to                                                               
make the project work.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
11:09:27 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  RAUSCHER pointed  to the  risks for  new supplies                                                               
mentioned on  slide 16 and  asked if  there was "anything  in the                                                               
wind."                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY stated  that the  expectation was  that there  was a                                                               
"lot of gas  up there, but no  one's been exploring for  it."  He                                                               
expressed  his concern  for fixed  price contracts  for the  time                                                               
frame of a project involving gas  that had not yet been found and                                                               
had not  yet been  costed for  production.   He reported  that if                                                               
there  were a  pipeline to  get North  Slope gas  to market,  the                                                               
companies  could  book  those known  reserves  on  their  balance                                                               
sheets.   He  added  that  the pipeline  had  not  yet passed  an                                                               
economic test.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
11:11:32 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY  shared  slide  17,  "Alaskans  cannot  will  it  to                                                               
success," which read:                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     No one outside Alaska cares that we want the project                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
      The Alaska LNG project will not solve our political                                                                       
     fights over Permanent Fund dividend, budget or taxes                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     Payments in lieu of municipal taxes far from settled                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     Mega-projects avoid risk  and Alaska excels at risk                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR HOPKINS asked which group was working on this.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY explained  that it  was a  municipal advisory  group                                                               
appointed by the governor to work  on the Alaska LNG project, and                                                               
it  included the  North Slope  Borough, the  Fairbanks-North Star                                                               
Borough, the  Denali Borough, the Matanuska-Susitna  Borough, and                                                               
the  Municipality  of  Anchorage.   He  reported  that  a  20-mil                                                               
property  tax for  the life  of the  project would  add about  10                                                               
percent  to the  final sale  price, and,  in the  current market,                                                               
that  was not  affordable.   He suggested  to negotiate  a shared                                                               
certainty for  each group so  that a price  could be quoted  to a                                                               
buyer.   He  offered  an  example of  revenue  based on  pipeline                                                               
mileage in each borough.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
11:15:23 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE PRUITT asked  how to ensure certainty  as it could                                                               
not be ensured through statute because of potential changes.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY offered  his belief  that constitutional  amendments                                                               
were not  recommended.  He pointed  out that contract law  with a                                                               
damages clause would work.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  PRUITT  asked if  that  was  the reason  for  the                                                               
importance of state  involvement as a signatory  to the contract.                                                               
He  noted   that  the  state   would  then  be   accountable  and                                                               
responsible for some of the damages.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY  replied  that  this   was  one  of  the  supporting                                                               
arguments for the original Alaska  Gasline Project with the state                                                               
as a  25 percent equity partner.   He pointed out  that the state                                                               
and the  producers were  then aligned  for the  lowest production                                                               
cost, the highest price, and the most stability.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  PRUITT asked  if  the contract  could be  written                                                               
with the  pipeline owner instead of  the end user.   He asked how                                                               
the state could have the  greatest opportunity to ensure it would                                                               
have buy-in.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  replied that this  would be subject  to negotiation,                                                               
as the contract would force the  state to behave responsibly.  He                                                               
offered  his  belief  that  Alaska   was  viewed  as  politically                                                               
"squirrelly."   He shared  that the IRS  had offered  its opinion                                                               
that the  percentage of  ownership by the  state would  be exempt                                                               
from federal  corporate income taxes,  even as the  oil companies                                                               
would have to  pay income tax.   He stated that he  was "a little                                                               
suspect on how the state represented the ownership structure."                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE PRUITT opined that this  had been a key discussion                                                               
point  during  the  previous administration  and  asked  if  this                                                               
discussion with  the IRS had  indicated that the State  of Alaska                                                               
would only have a certain share of ownership.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY, in response, offered  his belief that the letter was                                                               
sent while the  state was still a minority partner,  and that 100                                                               
percent ownership would  have changed the IRS  determination.  He                                                               
questioned the amount of gas that  would have stayed in the state                                                               
and asked  whether this  would have  been gas  for Alaskans  or a                                                               
profit-making venture.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
11:22:06 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY paraphrased  slide 18 "Alaska's options  are not very                                                               
good," which read:                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
     Alaska Stand-Alone Pipeline less economic than LNG                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     Building LNG  plant on the  North Slope would  not save                                                                    
     all that  much money,  air quality  permits would  be a                                                                    
     challenge,  it's  miles  out  to  deep  water  for  LNG                                                                    
     berths,  and   no  guarantee  of   year-round  ice-free                                                                    
     operations                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
     Best option: Finish the EIS and work with producers                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  expressed his agreement that  the Alaska Stand-Alone                                                               
Pipeline would require billions of  dollars of state subsidies to                                                               
primarily serve Fairbanks.   He discussed options  to a pipeline,                                                               
and pointed  out that  it would  be more  expensive to  build the                                                               
project  a factory  on the  North  Slope than  anywhere else,  as                                                               
there  would still  be  the need  for a  gas  treatment plant  to                                                               
remove  the CO2,  increased construction  costs, and  need for  a                                                               
man-made island to get the LNG out to deep water.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
11:24:08 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  discussed slide 19, "Alaska's  finances don't help,"                                                               
which read:                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Government role in LNG mega-project would be first in                                                                      
     the world outside of national oil companies                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
     Where would Alaska come up with its equity dollars?                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     Will oil and gas taxes change during the mortgage?                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     Would you loan billions of dollars on Alaska project?                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  declared that it was  be necessary for the  state to                                                               
resolve  its  own  financial  issues before  it  could  become  a                                                               
partner in any project of this size.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
11:24:55 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR HOPKINS  directed attention to  the world market  and asked                                                               
about the  "wild cards  in the  international market"  that might                                                               
impact the potential for an LNG line.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY  stated his belief that  China would be a  wild card,                                                               
noting that its economy was  showing some signs of weakening, and                                                               
that India  should also be watched.   He looked at  the potential                                                               
impact of a  Russian pipeline and its  government intervention as                                                               
"Putin sees  energy as a  means of control and  political gains."                                                               
He  questioned how  much China  and  India would  grow and  where                                                               
would they get cheaper gas.   He added Mozambique as a wild card,                                                               
noting its  three gas  projects could offer  three times  the gas                                                               
capacity  of Alaska  with  proximity to  South  Asia, China,  and                                                               
India.   He reported  that natural  gas was  also discussed  as a                                                               
"bridge fuel" for renewables.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
11:27:21 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE RAUSCHER asked if Mr.  Persily was against LNG for                                                               
Alaska or just  against a pipeline.  He asked  if LNG could "come                                                               
down the  side of  Alaska instead  of coming  down the  middle of                                                               
Alaska."                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. PERSILY, in response to  Representative Rauscher, offered his                                                               
belief  that building  a liquefaction  plant on  the North  Slope                                                               
that  would  require  a  huge  fleet  of  ice  breakers  was  not                                                               
economically and environmentally a good idea.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  RAUSCHER  referenced  the  possibility  of  short                                                               
pipelines off  the coast to "work  around the major costs  of the                                                               
entire pipeline that runs down the middle of the state."                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY  pointed  out  that  this  would  still  be  a  very                                                               
expensive  pipeline  and  opined  that  it  would  be  even  more                                                               
expensive  to   build  a  plant   on  the  west  coast   than  in                                                               
Southcentral which  had year-round access.   He pointed  out that                                                               
the gas  was still  being used  to produce more  oil and  was not                                                               
being wasted.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
11:29:39 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR HOPKINS asked about the Stranded Gas Development Act.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PERSILY  offered his  belief  that  this  had expired.    He                                                               
explained that  this act gave the  state the ability, if  the gas                                                               
was declared stranded,  to negotiate different fiscal  terms.  He                                                               
pointed  out  that former  Governor  Murkowski  had brought  this                                                               
contract  to the  legislature for  consent,  but the  legislature                                                               
never voted  on it.   He  stated that  "there were  problems with                                                               
that contract."                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
11:31:06 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
ADJOURNMENT                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
There being no  further business before the  committee, the House                                                               
Special Committee on Energy meeting was adjourned at 11:31 a.m.                                                                 

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
2019-03-26 - Persily LNG Presentation.pdf HENE 3/26/2019 10:15:00 AM